How big a risk does climate change pose to Africa's food security?

-

Much of the Western literature is highly pessimistic of Africa's ability to ensure reliable food supply with climate change. Following lectures from weeks 4 and 5, I summarise competing arguments and aim to take a more constructive approach.

Key to this post is understanding the projected impact of climate change on Africa's hydrological systems. As established in the previous post, hydrological disruption has significant (but not total) consequences for food supply. The principal impact of climate change in tropical areas is increased rainfall variability with more severe precipitation events and fewer moderate ones (Fischer & Knutti, 2019).

The effects of this, which I now summarise, are widespread. Episodic precipitation induces more variable soil moisture impairing crop yields. The graphs below compare a year of steady rainfall (1975) with one of episodic rainfall (1981) in Andhra Pradesh, India. Despite total rainfall being unchanged, crop yields were 34% lower in 1981. With climate change expected to be more intense in tropical climates, this may necessarily point to expansion of land under irrigation as an adaptive strategy.


(Challinor et al., 2006)

Moreover, highly variable rainfall produces even more variable river discharge and longer, more frequent droughts. Further, groundwater storage is compromised due to intensification of precipitation and evapotranspiration with increased likelihood of aquifers running dry between heavy rainfall events (Wu et al., 2020). This is exacerbated by rapid urbanisation at a rate seven times faster than the developing world leading to infrastructures becoming overwhelmed (Cobbinah et al., 2015).

This is a damning proposition. However, Washington et al. (2006) maintains that adaptation to existing climate variability will go a long way to adapting to climate change. This means we must assess different approaches to ensure that Africa can position itself optimally as climate change intensifies.

Two distinct approaches to water management have been deployed in Africa, the first being top-down engineering solutions. These have generally failed to accurately identify and alleviate local issues, but persist because of institutional inertia. For example, critics of the Akosombo Dam consider it an economic project rather than one tailored to local needs. Whilst promises to support irrigation were made to approve construction, these were soon dropped from plans (Miescher, 2014). Today, almost all its energy serves aluminium smelting. This video essay illustrates the conflicts around Akosombo's construction:

Since, sustainable freshwater management projects based on full public participation have emerged embodied by UNCED's Integrated River Basin Management. This contributed to successful management of the Pongolapoort reservoir on South Africa's Phongolo. Whilst initial flood releases from the reservoir were unsuccessful and poorly timed, this was mitigated following consultation with farmers, fisher-folk and other stakeholders thereby involving floodplain communities in floodplain management (Bruwer et al., 1996).

Climate change does threaten Africa's water and food security. With rapid urbanisation and the proposed expansion of irrigated land, increases in freshwater demand are projected. This can be mitigated through multi-sectoral, inclusive management of water resources based on community needs. However, conflicts of interest at the institutional level may impede this.

Comments

  1. ClementNovember 15, 2022 at 2:10 AM

    Your posts demonstrates reasonable grasp of water and food issues in Africa, and the two posts build on each other showing engagement with relevant literarues. However, some of the points you raised about water and food intersection could use some clarification. For instance, how do you reconcile the experience of rainfall distributions in Andhra Pradesh, India between 1975 and 1981 with the experiences from the African continent? And what are the specific implication of Akosombo dam for local food production?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousJanuary 6, 2023 at 5:45 PM

      Thanks for your feedback, Clement. You have raised some good points and I have made some changes to rectify this. I used Andhra Pradesh, India as there was data readily available and it provided an interesting scenario. I have now related this to experiences on the African continent by arguing that climate change is set to be even more severe in tropical climates so we will likely see an even more extreme decline in crop yields. Also, I have developed my argument of the Akosombo dam to reveal how economic and political self-interests behind its construction diminish its effectiveness in boosting food production. I've also included a video for further detail on this.

      Delete

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Introduction: The complex relationship between water and food

-
Image
I’ve decided the best way to structure this first post is to discuss the reasons behind choosing my thematic area before providing some useful context. It presents an opportunity to build on my understanding of the complex relationship between water and food from my study of Human Ecology where the evolution of competing discourses within this space stood out to me. Naturally, this provides scope for nuanced critique to illustrate my own perspective through this blog. I now outline some of these competing arguments. Traditionally, the literature widely accepted that acute food shortages were brought about by food-availability decline (FAD) meaning a fall in aggregate food production ( Basu, 2010 ). This could result from fluctuations in physical variables, perhaps rainfall, or extreme geopolitical events. Regardless, this reduces the relationship between water and food to a linear one – water scarcity leads to a fall in aggregate food production which threatens food shortage. This logi
Read more

Water Grabbing

-
Image
 I concluded my previous post by emphasising the importance of tackling power and control abuses by governments and institutions over communities. This is the first of two posts looking into specific instances of this. Water grabs are the extensive acquisition of land by companies or governments where water is implicitly or explicitly given away with the land. Foreign investors have acquired huge quantities of fertile agricultural land in African countries like Zambia ( Chu, 2012 ). There is conflict over the viability of large-scale investment in Zambia where the aggregate of land deals is equivalent to 12.92% of total arable land, increasing pressures on farmland ( Keane, 2011 ). The common narrative behind these deals is governments from 'finance-rich, resource-poor' nations are turning to 'finance-poor, resource-rich' countries to secure their own future food and energy requirements ( Borras & Franco, 2010: 508 ). However, these land grabs become water grabs as
Read more

Towards an irrigated future: Decolonising water

-
Image
African nations have adopted a range of innovative solutions to control access to water resources in the face of challenging conditions discussed in this blog. Some have enjoyed more success than others. This post looks at South Africa's system of water permits and, crucially, its impact on the expansion of irrigated agriculture. The water permit system in South Africa is the legacy of colonial histories. Under Dutch rule from 1652 to 1810, water was seen as a public commodity. Between 1810 and 1925, British rulers replaced this with riparian law which favoured land owners. Therefore, water use was divided along racial lines by the end of the 19th century with most water allocated to the white population for commercial agriculture ( Tewari & Oumar, 2013 ). In response, the National Water Act (NWA) of 1998 attempted to balance between efficient use of water, equity and environmental issues, designating the state as the public trustee of the country's water resources. Through
Read more